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Commentary - Easy for her to say

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November 22 2013
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Commentary - Myths and mythtakes

October 18 2013
Commentary - Um… like… you know…

October 11 2013
Commentary - Something to say… more often

September 3 2013
Commentary - Note to a Grade 9 student on the first day

July 26 2013
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - West Lombok, Eagle Hill, and the Market
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

June 29 2013
Eagle Hill - Singing (and dancing) in the rain
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

June 20 2013
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Southern Arc Minerals – the path forward
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June 18 2013
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
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June 11 2013
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June 4 2013
Company Files
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TAG Oil to take over NZEC!

May 7 2013
Key Personnel - If I have to explain...
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

April 12 2013
Commentary - Déjà vu all over again

February 25 2013
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
Stockhouse forum fumbles – New Zealand Energy Corp

January 2 2013
Commentary - Numbers don't lie…

December 17 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - State of the Nation
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

December 7 2012
Commentary - The journey is the thing

November 16 2012
Commentary - J'accuse

November 12 2012
Commentary - Of goblins and short cuts

November 6 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
Kapuni – huh? Tell me more…

October 29 2012
Commentary - Fallen leaves...

October 2 2012
Commentary - King of the Hill

August 31 2012
Commentary - Victim → Survivor → Thriver

August 2 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Rope-a-dope
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

July 23 2012
Guest Article
Stan Zalewski
Craig Schwartz

July 4 2012
Commentary - Let the scum burn!

June 28 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
Quarterly snorting – but we've always done it that way!

June 25 2012
Commentary - "Boy… have I got pictures!"

June 20 2012
Venture Exchange
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June 13 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
House Rules

April 5 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Coulda, shoulda, woulda… the Southern Arc Opportunity Cost
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

April 2 2012
Commentary - If we lose the Middle East…

March 29 2012
Commentary - Or maybe I'm suffering from second-hand toke…

March 27 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Peek-a-boo
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

March 22 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Political risk in Indonesia – another perspective
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

March 11 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
Value in the Taranaki Basin (video)

March 10 2012
Toolbox - End of Period Valuation of a Collection of Wells

March 1 2012
Commentary - All women are beautiful…

February 28 2012
Commentary - The jury is… without me!

February 25 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
A choke and a spitball (video)

February 22 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
The art of the promise

February 19 2012
Venture Exchange - A better way to invest on the Venture Exchange

February 09 2012
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
NZEC – what's going on?

February 06 2012
Commentary - Of rights and responsibilities

February 02 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Have I got a stock tip for you!
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 19 2012
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January 13 2012
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January 10 2012
Recommended Reading
A Tale of Two Employees

January 09 2012
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - The demons within… or choose your battles carefully
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 03 2012
Guest Article
Money is time: Chris Bart responds
Chris Bart

December 22 2011
Commentary - Money is time

December 14 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Mud puddles at your feet
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

December 13 2011
Company Files
New Zealand Energy Corp.
NZEC – what you know and who you know

November 17 2011
Recommended Reading
Steve Jobs: Obsessed… or possessed?

November 05 2011
Recommended Reading
The Rare Find – spotting exceptional talent before everyone else

November 02 2011
Links of Interest
Gold ready to attack prior highs in the 1900’s
David Banister

October 29 2011
Commentary - Desperadoes and thieves

October 27 2011
Links of Interest
A rally for gold
David Banister

October 17 2011
Commentary - Like silent raindrops fell…

October 12 2011
Commentary - Go to pancake mix

October 03 2011
Commentary - Idle hands are the devil’s tools

September 30 2011
Commentary - Choosing the best tool

September 25 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - I have nothing more to say…
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

September 14 2011
Links of Interest
Gold heading to $2,350 per ounce after 4th wave consolidation
David Banister

September 12 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - The Rule of Law on West Lombok
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

September 11 2011
Commentary - Bill and Bella

September 7 2011
Links of Interest
Bull Market In Gold Over With Double Top?
David Banister

September 5 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Perception versus reality
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

September 3 2011
Commentary - Five Star Help!

August 27 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - One leads to the other, of course!
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

August 20 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Multiple tens of dollars
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

July 27 2011
Commentary - Shoot the middleman!

July 20 2011
Commentary - Critical conversation

July 08 2011
Properties - West Lombok - Way Linggo and its relevance to Southern Arc (video)
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

June 22 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Connecting the dots
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

June 14 2011
Toolbox
Simplify Insider Trading Reports

June 03 2011
Links of Interest
Crucial Pivot Point for the CDNX Index in Canada

June 01 2011
Toolbox - What’s the grade between the highlights?

June 01 2011
Toolbox - Calculating Tonnage

May 31 2011
Commentary - A Revolution in Education

May 29 2011
Comparative Companies - East Asia Minerals (EAS.V) - Somebody’s gonna be pissed!
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

May 15 2011
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April 29 2011
Links of Interest
Where next for Gold-Silver and the SP 500 Indexes?
David Banister

April 19 2011
Feedback on 'A=B'

April 14 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Pelangan and Mencanggah: IF A=B and IF B=C, then…
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

March 13 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Say “Hello” to my little friend!
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

February 13 2011
Commentary - Trust me!

February 12 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - All Systems 'Go!'
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 31 2011
Key Personnel - Mate in Three?
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 19 2011
Feedback on 'Sunday Afternoon'

January 17 2011
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - A Pleasant Sunday Afternoon
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 17 2011
Properties - Pelangan Drilling Results Released
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

January 17 2011
Properties - West Lombok IUP Issued
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

December 9 2010
Toolbox:
To Suppress or Not to Suppress

December 8 2010
Feedback on 'Relationships'

December 7 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Relationships
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

November 24 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Big Picture… Little Picture – another walk around the barn
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

November 24 2010
Properties - Taliwang - Southern Arc and Newcrest Sign a Heads of Agreement
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

November 24 2010
Key personnel - Mike Andrews
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

November 12 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Straight and to the Point
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

November 12 2010
Properties - Tirtomoyo/Karang Tengah
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

October 29 2010
Indonesia - The "Fifth BRIC"
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

October 28 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - What’s Southern Arc worth?
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

October 7 2010
Key personnel -Insider Trading Summary Report
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October 4 2010
Properties - East Elang/ Sabalong - Southern Arc Strikes First Joint Venture Deal
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

September 15 2010
Toolbox: In Situ Valuation Calculator

September 10 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Various and Sundry
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

August 30 2010
Properties - West Lombok Maps Update
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (map update)

July 12 2010
Properties - Taliwang - Taliwang IUP Issued
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

July 12 2010
Risk assessment/Risk reduction - Bureaucratic
Southern Arc Minerals Inc. - Main page (updated)

June 8 2010
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June 7 2010
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March 30 2010
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March 23 2010
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March 22 2010
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March 14 2010
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October 23 2009
New Additions to Library

September 10 2009
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September 9 2009
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June 30 2009
Survey Reports
Impact Silver Corp (updated)

June 19 2009
Guest Article
If I'm So Smart, How Come
I Don't Run PIMCO?

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June 19 2009
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April 9 2009
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April 2 2009
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March 31 2009
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March 31 2009
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March 22 2009
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February 12 2009
Guest Article
The Obama Stimulus:
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Nowhere to Go

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December 27 2008
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December 23 2008
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December 16 2008
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November 29 2008
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October 31 2008
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September 19 2008
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September 10 2008
Survey Reports
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September 9 2008
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August 6 2008
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July 15 2008
Southern Arc and
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July 10 2008
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June 20 2008
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June 16 2008
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June 10 2008
Survey Reports
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June 4 2008
Toolbox:
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June 2 2008
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May 30 2008
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May 30 2008
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May 27 2008
Survey Reports
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May 26 2008
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May 26 2008
Guest Article
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May 22 2008
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May 22 2008
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May 21 2008
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May 20 2008
Insider Holdings Summary Reports

May 12 2008
Guest Article
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May 8 2008
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May 6 2008
Insider Trading Summary Reports

May 6 2008
British Columbia Securities Commission List of Disciplined Persons

May 5 2008
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April 28 2008
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April 24 2008
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April 23 2008
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April 23 2008
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April 17 2008
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April 17 2008
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April 16 2008
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April 9 2008
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April 8 2008
An Introduction to Geology and Hard Rock Mining

April 5 2008
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April 4 2008
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April 3 2008
Required Reading
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March 31 2008
Guest Article
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March 28 2008
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March 25 2008
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March 24 2008
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March 24 2008
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March 16 2008
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March 14 2008
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March 13 2008
Toolbox: Cubing the Hole

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Mud puddles at your feet

December 14, 2011

"Hi,

Too bad that things didn't work out the way we all hoped for at SA. I hope that the remaining holes will prove up some good grades, so that the share price can recover and I can exit, possibly with a nice profit.

Signed (I've changed his name here) X"

This was an email from a grahamanalytics reader, waiting for me when I got up this morning.

While reaching for my neck brace with one hand (to prevent injury from excessive shaking of the head), and my keyboard with the other, I caught myself short and bit my tongue. Took a deep breath, enjoyed breakfast with my family, sent our little one off to school, savoured a second cup of coffee with my lovely wife, and wandered back to the office to pen a response. In the meantime, I'd received multiple other messages, wondering if I didn't have more to say about Southern Arc… and one questioning directly whether I'd given up on that investment. Should have seen that coming, I guess. A friend had already predicted it when he saw my piece on New Zealand Energy (NZ.V), posted yesterday. For the past four years, people have been tossing names of companies at me, encouraging me to focus more on investments other than Southern Arc. My answer has always been, 'I'll only write what I know.' Now that I have chosen to 'know' something about another investment opportunity, and after a prolonged period of silence on my part, a sense of abandonment has been voiced by a number of people. Can't win either way, I guess.

Part of my hesitation in response is in knowing the part of the world from which the message had been sent. Perhaps something was lost in the translation, I thought. Perhaps. I'll give the benefit of the doubt on one hand, but will answer the message here as if it were intended literally as written. In light of the numerous recent messages I've received on the subject, the following should be taken as a general response, rather than simply a reply to one person.

Dear X:

It's far too premature to suggest that 'things didn't work out the way we all hoped for at SA.' To speak of this investment in the past tense is to be caught up in the moment. Getting caught up in the moment is a risky prospect in just about any part of life, with few exceptions. Think about that for a minute. How many times were you caught up in momentary agony, or momentary ecstasy, only to be pulled back to reality by the 'whole' picture.

'Things' are working out very nicely at Southern Arc, in my view. Nothing in the fundamentals of the investment have changed, other than for the good. I should preface these comments with the caveat that my view offers nothing to short-term traders or those who need the invested funds to pay for next week's groceries. To them, I have nothing of value to say. To those invested in the Company in hopes of a big payout, I say again, things are working out very nicely. Remember back in December, 2007, when John Proust was vilified for raising funds at $1.20? A year later, people were calling that move nothing short of brilliant. I regularly hear moaning and groaning from people who sunk hundreds of thousands of dollars into this stock at $1.60, $1.70, and higher… and 'for what?' Well, here's the silver lining for those who bought as an 'investment.' Your sacrifice is not without benefit, albeit one you may not (yet) feel. Be assured that, if you had not been buying this stock at those levels, John Proust would not have been able to raise $46 million at $1.60 and $1.70 earlier this year. Bluntly put, he would have been issuing twice the number of shares at half the price. History will again judge favourably on this account, I think. So…while it hurts to have paid higher prices, it was not without an upside. This Company is cashed up for drilling West Lombok for the next two years. The general market may run a roller coaster ride to its heart's content. I care not. From an operational standpoint, Southern Arc is impervious… read that again… impervious to the market fluctuations. When the market is through with its gyrations, those companies with cash, with highly prospective properties, with strong management, and with key relationships in place will bounce quickly to new highs.

Engagement is Everything

For a number of years, someone very close to me would answer each new challenge with, "I can't do it!" Perhaps my greatest gift to him (I hope he would agree) is the addition of the word "yet" at the end of that declaration. He is infinitely more wealthy having accepted this gift. Life is a journey and should be engaged as such. Over breakfast this morning, X's message in hand, I took the opportunity to raise this subject with my 12 year old daughter. Asking her to finish the line, I posed, "Life isn't just what happens to you…" Her answer, with very minor edits, "… life is what you do about what happens to you." Who says there's no hope in our youth? My indoctrination of her is intact. From September through March, she spends some 15 hours each week training at a dance studio. All of this for a flurry of five competitions in the Spring. She's just 12, remember. As you enter the door of the studio each day, the sign reads, "Life is not about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself." George Bernard Shaw. "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." Alan Kay.

I've got a million of these. Don't tempt me.

So… what's all this got to do with Southern Arc. Here's the thing. Four years ago, we created a community. This community was a small group of investors eager to learn more about this Company so as to become engaged in the journey. Engagement is everything. This engagement has spawned a partnership of sorts with Company management. I've heard John Proust speak in these terms on more than one occasion, describing this relationship with lay investors in Southern Arc as unlike anything he's experienced or seen … ever. By engagement, I mean study. I mean conversation. I mean thinking past short-term share price fluctuations. I mean stepping back to see the horizon, rather than zooming in on the mud puddle at your feet.

There are those who would dislodge you from such engagement. One would be the raccoon whom I described in the September 30th piece, Choosing the best tool. Adopting umpteen different aliases, this rather stubborn fellow has completely hijacked the online discussion forum for Southern Arc, doing everything he can to discourage intelligent conversation and (I suspect) with hopes to encourage lower share price for accumulation. His high-frequency posts are an attempt to frustrate and fatigue people into selling. Whether he actually wants to buy cheap shares or just wants to punish John Proust for money lost elsewhere, I honestly don't know. His behaviour seems downright sociopathic to me.

The Southern Arc community lives on, just not on the Stockhouse forum. The opportunity to invent the future resides in a will to engage. Step up. Initiate. Engage. Whether or not you become materially wealthy beyond your wildest dreams is irrelevant. The journey is the thing.

When you speak of "the remaining holes," X, I fear you're referring to the 16 holes to be released in January. Such short-term perspective, if I read you correctly, is folly. There may be something to celebrate in these holes… I expect nothing. If it works out better than I expect, I'll be pleasantly surprised. The Waterfall drilling program was a political selection, rather than geologic. While there is mineralization there (9 holes reported mineralization so far, if I recall correctly), this site was chosen to make a statement to the itinerant miners. This was the centre of their activity. The objective here was to be 'in their face… in their own back yard. We're here and we’re not leaving and there's nothing you can do about it.' Never a guarantee, but the message has been delivered. Bising and Tibu Serai are much more exciting sites, in my view. This is where surface work yielded grades topping 200 g/t. Bring it on, I say. With a 10 rig program and 6,000 metres per month through the first half of 2012, this is a junior explorer to be watched very closely. Most juniors will do a financing, poke a few holes in the ground, leak a few millions of dollars out to consulting companies with questionable connection to management, then do another financing. Not this one. With 30 km of strike, the game is just now getting under way. Far too early to be thinking about a share price recovery for a speedy exit. Far too early. See my piece from August 20th, Multiple tens of dollars for a refresher on my unabated enthusiasm for this investment. See the 18 minute July 8th video for my take on the scale of the upside potential for West Lombok.

Do not take my recent silence as indicative of indifference or disinterest or abandonment. Far from it. In my view, for what it's worth, this is the 'real deal' as the saying goes. Nothing has changed in the fundamentals of this investment. Two things have recently presented themselves as what I call bumps in the road. First, the security issues in May and August took everyone, including the Company, by surprise. Okay, now deal with it and move on. Second, the general market anxiety, still upon us. I term this as a 'bump in the road' also, though the doomsayers would say more. Cash in the bank says Southern Arc will survive and thrive, and my investment along with it.

There's been nothing to speak about in the absence of news. With sustained, uninterrupted, drilling activity, the news flow come January, should be strong and steady.

We all have hopes, and this one's fair game for our investment in Southern Arc. At the same time, hope is not a strategy. It must be coupled with hard work… and by that, I mean due diligence. I've done mine, and have no worries for this investment. None. Whatsoever. Period.

In time, X, I hope you can say the same.

Sincerely,

Kevin Graham

P.S.: I encourage readers to continue to connect with me on Southern Arc, and am happy to engage. Before you do, however, asking if I've given up on SA, please first click on the last two embedded links above. There, you'll find my current take on this investment.

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