Risk assessment/Risk reduction
June 7, 2010
Make no mistake of it. This is a speculative investment. Any serious consideration of this Company must take into account the following.
We’re looking at an apparently underfunded company in a risky field, of which we have little fundamental knowledge, operating in a poorly understood region, in a country new to democracy and possessing a history of corruption and slothful bureaucracy, absent a strong market presence, and at a time when the whole world could be about to make that fateful journey over the precipice in a hand basket.
That pretty much says it all, doesn’t it?
The upside potential in the field of junior explorers is huge. Fortunes are created overnight for some. Moves like Aurelian from 40 cents to 40 dollars in seven months are legendary. Everyone wants a piece of that action. Few want to assume the attendant risk. Of more than 1,000 mineral explorers listed on the Venture Exchange, perhaps 400 are nothing more than a name and a listing. Scams are plentiful. Less than scrupulous operators come a dime a dozen. The downside is all the way to zero.
Do not… I repeat… do not invest in this field any money needed to fund operations (food, clothing, shelter) within a twelve month period, maybe longer. This is a place to play. It’s a game. It’s a very serious game, though, with severe consequences for the unprepared or imprudent. If you love games and fancy yourself a player, however, these (see below) are considerations you must address. Failure to do so will inevitably cost you many a good night’s sleep. Do your own homework and judge for yourself. I've done mine and have no trouble sleeping.
- Knowledge base
- Fundamentals (updated June 8, 2010)
- Political
- Bureaucratic (updated July 12, 2010)
- General market
- Promotional
- Various and Sundry (September 10, 2010)
- What is SA worth? (October 28, 2010)
- Straight and to the Point (November 12, 2010)
- Big Picture… Little Picture – another walk around the barn (November 24, 2010)
- Relationships (December 7, 2010)
- A Pleasant Sunday Afternoon (January 17, 2011)
- All Systems 'Go!' (February 12, 2011)
- Say “Hello” to my little friend! (March 13, 2011)
- Pelangan and Mencanggah: IF A=B and IF B=C, then… (April 14, 2011)
- Connecting the dots (June 22, 2011)
- Multiple tens of dollars (August 21, 2011)
- One leads to the other, of course! (August 27, 2011)
- Perception versus reality (September 5, 2011)
- The Rule of Law on West Lombok (September 12, 2011)
- I have nothing more to say… (September 25, 2011)
- Mud puddles at your feet (December 14, 2011)
- The demons within… or choose your battles carefully (January 9, 2012)
- Have I got a stock tip for you! (February 2, 2012)
- Political risk in Indonesia – another perspective (March 22, 2012)
- Peek-a-boo (March 27, 2012)
- Coulda, shoulda, woulda… the Southern Arc Opportunity Cost (April 5, 2012)