Somebody’s gonna be pissed!
May 29, 2011
I’ve been advised by an acquaintance of a conversation in which he was asked for the basis of my accurate but apparently ‘lucky guess’ shared with a friend back in February, as to the size of East Asia Minerals’ Miwah deposit. Be warned. I’ve long forgotten the Calculus needed to do a proper job of this. My eyeballing methods are very primitive and carry no weight of authority, but I think underscore the need to spread out paper and pencil on the kitchen table and to see for myself, rather than to accept without question the words of so-called experts. I refuse to accept the notion that I can do nothing in these matters for myself. Rightly or wrongly, what you see below is no more than a short note to myself as I studied the results… not in February, but in November of last year. Other than the square bracketed note [] in the first paragraph, this is what I wrote to myself, trying to better understand what might be there. Please note that I include no estimate of what the final resource count may be for Miwah. For the sake of EAS shareholders, I hope this count rises considerably. These notes refer only to what I could see based on drilling to date in November, 2010… and remember, if I can do it, anybody can. So, do your own due diligence.
With respect,
Kevin
……………………………..
Looking at the Google Earth image, below, with their own map superimposed [– I’ve removed the Company map, as their website prohibits reproduction of EAS materials without permission, and replaced it with the framing image shown here. It more or less accurately portrays the same area as their website map, with drill holes mostly piercing from the south (or left) in the first image, below].
From the East-
From the South-
… I keep reading ‘analysts’ reports of this being already identified as a deposit of 1200 m x 450 m x 250 m.
Moreover, these people simply multiply the three dimensions together to get the supposed volume of the deposit.
Measuring the dimensions on Google Earth, as I see it, this is a massive exaggeration of the size of what they’ve identified so far.
At most, I’d be tempted to give 1,000 metres East/West. As for North/South, it varies greatly, looking at holes drilled to date, from maybe 80 metres to 400 metres tops. I don’t give anything for the South Bluff zone as it seems to be nothing more than a remnant with very small intercepts. So, I’ll be generous and call it, on average, North/South across the ridge at 300 metres. As for depth, the average intercept length is 102.4 m. Giving some credit for elevation shifts, let’s call it 150 m. Average grade of gold is 1.57. Weighted average (adjusted for length) grade is 1.41.Using one of my website calculators, this would mean just over 5 million ounces, not 10 or 11 million as these guys are saying.
At $150 per ounce, this would yield a per share value of $9.22.
Now, here’s the kicker. Looking at the Google Earth images, this discovery is on a very steep hill. If it doesn’t extend past the base of the hill, and I believe that remains to be determined, the volume will be nowhere near what even my numbers (1,000 x 300 x 150) offer. Taken as a 3D triangular prism (which it is not, as the ridge does not hold its height across the East/West span), its volume would be ½ x base x height x length. In other words, cut the volume by one-half. So, achieving this halving by arbitrarily adjusting my width figure down from 300 to just 150 metres, what’s left is shown below: 2.5 million ounces with a calculated per share value of $4.61. The volume is just 1/6th of what some reviewers are estimating. Wow! If I’m anywhere close on this, somebody’s gonna be plenty pissed.
